Rainfall Variability and its Implications for Rice Production andFarmer Adaptation in Southern Plateau State, Nigeria, Between 2000and 2024
Keywords:
Rainfall variability, Rice production, Southern Plateau State, Climate-smart adaptation, Farmer perceptions, Precipitation Concentration Index, Agricultural resilienceAbstract
Rainfall variability is a major challenge to rainfed rice production in sub-Saharan Africa, yet local-scale evidence linking climate trends with agricultural performance remains limited. This study examined the effects of rainfall variability on rice production across six Local Government Areas (LGAs) in southern Plateau State, Nigeria, using 25 years (2000–2024) of rainfall and production records, complemented by surveys of 180 rice farmers, 12 focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Mean annual rainfall ranged from 1,002.08 mm in Langtang South to 1,065.25 mm in Langtang North. Rainfall variability (CV = 7.81–10.44%) was considerably lower than rice production variability (CV = 20.19–26.22%), indicating the influence of both climatic and non-climatic factors. Langtang South recorded the only significant declining rainfall trend (−9.30 mm year⁻¹; p = 0.015), the highest drought frequency, and the shortest growing season (153 days). Significant rainfall–production relationships were observed in Qua'an Pan (r = 0.612; R² = 0.452), Langtang South (r = 0.498; R² = 0.341), and Wase (r = 0.444; R² = 0.307), while weak relationships in Langtang North and Shendam suggested that management and institutional factors were more important production constraints. Both annual rainfall and rainfall concentration significantly influenced rice production. Farmer perceptions closely matched meteorological observations, while limited access to finance, irrigation, improved seed, climate information, and extension services constrained adaptation. These findings highlight the need for location-specific climate-smart interventions to strengthen the resilience of rice-based farming systems in southern Plateau State.
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