Perceived Effects of Kidnapping on Security and Public Safety in Nigeria: Evidence from Ondo State

Abstract

Kidnapping has metamorphosed from an isolated criminal act into a structured and organised threat that shapes how Nigerians experience security and public safety, and Ondo State, once regarded as one of the most peaceful states in south-western Nigeria, has in recent years witnessed a disturbing escalation of abductions along the Akure–Owo–Benin corridor and the forested axes of Akoko, Ose and Idanre. This study examined residents' perceptions of the effects of kidnapping on security and public safety in Ondo State, Nigeria. Anchored on Routine Activity Theory and Social Contract Theory, the study adopted a cross-sectional descriptive survey design. Five kidnapping-prone local government areas (Akure South, Akure North, Owo, Ose and Akoko South-West) were purposively selected, and 400 adult residents were sampled from them through proportionate stratified random sampling with systematic selection within wards and communities; 384 copies of a structured four-point Likert questionnaire were correctly completed and analysed (96.0% response rate; pilot Cronbach's alpha = 0.81). Data were analysed using frequencies, percentages, means and standard deviations, and Chi-square tests of independence at the 0.05 level, with Cramér's V reported as the effect size. Respondents perceived unemployment, porous forest reserves, weak inter-agency intelligence coordination and the lucrative ransom economy as the most important drivers of kidnapping (grand mean = 3.39); reported that kidnapping has heightened fear, reduced confidence in security agencies and restricted free movement (grand mean = 3.34); perceived severe socio-economic and psychological costs for victims and communities (grand mean = 3.30); rated the effectiveness of security agencies as low (grand mean = 2.31); and rated community policing, intelligence-led technology, youth economic empowerment and stricter law enforcement as the most viable strategies (grand mean = 3.52). The perceived frequency of kidnapping incidents was significantly associated with perceived public safety (χ²(9, N = 384) = 42.586, p < .001, Cramér's V = 0.19), as was trust in security agencies with perceived effectiveness (χ²(4, N = 384) = 51.203, p < .001, V = 0.26), whereas education level was not significantly associated with perceptions of kidnapping's effects on security (χ²(6, N = 384) = 8.114, p = .230, V = 0.10). These are associations among self-reported perceptions in a cross-sectional sample and do not establish causal relationships. The study concludes that kidnapping is perceived as a structural threat to security and public safety in the sampled areas of Ondo State, with no significant difference by education level, and recommends intelligence-driven community policing, forest security reform, youth empowerment and strengthened multi-agency coordination as measures for restoring public safety.