Federal Might and Off-Cycle Elections: What Osun 2018-2026 and Edo 2020-2024 Teach us About 2027
Keywords:
Federal Might, Osun, Edo, BVAS, IReV, Election, Off-Cycle.Abstract
The study is set out to understand why federal might ,the powers to be , that is when Abuja moves police, army, DSS, EFCC into one state to turn things around in favour of the ruling party is in action. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn`t. Osun and Edo states are investigated and examined in this study. The researcher use both states as case study because they do off-cycle governorship elections , so all attention concentrates there. Using Independence National Electoral Comission(INEC) results 2018-2026 (Adejumobi, 2000; Omotola, 2010), It was identify that federal might is not a magic. In Osun, it worked in 2018 with 482 votes margin but failed in 2022 with 28,344 margin and failed again in 2026 with 511,067 vs 444,815 margin 66,252 LGAs 19 vs 11 (INEC, 2026). In Edo, it failed in 2020 with 307,955 vs 223,619 but succeeded in 2024 with 291,667 vs 247,274 vs 22,763 margin 44,393 LGAs 11 vs 7 due to split (INEC, 2024). Turnout is falling Osun 54% to 42.09% and Edo 32.7% to 26.59% (YIAGA Africa, 2024). My model: Federal Might Success = f(Margin 1% OR Split 4% OR Turnout 30% OR Elite Defection). All eyes and attention of the country are usually are on them. The researcher established that Federal might is not a magic, but state power in acion. In Osun, it worked in 2018 with that tiny 482 votes margin after rerun in 7 PUs. But it failed in 2022 when Adeleke got 403,371 against Oyetola's 375,027 margin 28,344. And it failed again on August 15th, 2026, even worse. Adeleke now in Accord party, scored 511,067 vs Oyebamiji APC 444,815. That's 66,252 margin, 19 LGAs vs 11. vs Ighodalo PDP 247,274 vs Akpata LP 22,763, federal might worked because PDP was divided and LP took 22k. The researcher concluded the study with 2027 election prediction and few recommendations.
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