Proof-of-Concept Optimisation of Low-Carbon Power System Dispatch: Assessing the Impact of Doubling Battery Storage Capacity on Operating Cost, Emissions, and Supply Adequacy

Abstract

This paper presents a proof-of-concept economic dispatch optimisation model to evaluate the operational, economic, and environmental impacts of scaling Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) within a carbon-constrained power network. Four distinct scenarios are evaluated over a deterministic 24-hour horizon: Baseline, Flexible, Low-carbon, and Doubled-Storage (120 MWh). The simulation results reveal a profound systemic bottleneck: while enforcing a strict carbon emission cap of 250 tCO2/day successfully reduces environmental impacts by 22%, it triggers severe supply inadequacy. This causes unserved load penalties that escalate daily operating costs from £0.1M to £2.1M. Crucially, doubling the BESS capacity provides zero operational relief, with the storage system remaining completely unutilized and flatlined at its initial state-of-charge. This paper demonstrates that expanding energy storage capacity in isolation—without concurrent over-provisioning of variable renewable generation capacity or dynamic charging architectures—creates a stranded asset that cannot mitigate supply deficits or lower system costs. The findings offer critical cautionary insights for grid planners and policymakers targeting decarbonisation milestones.