A Stochastic Planning Framework for Africa-Europe VSC-HVDCRenewable Electricity Trade: Security and Market Screening of anELMED-Type Case
Keywords:
AC/DC optimal power flow, Africa-Europe interconnection, congestion rent, frequency security, HVDC, market coupling, renewable export, stochastic planning framework, VSC-HVDC, voltage stability, weak-grid screening.Abstract
Africa-Europe high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) interconnectors are increasingly considered enabling infrastructure for renewable electricity export, regional adequacy support, and cross-border electricity market integration. This paper develops a two-stage stochastic planning framework for Africa-Europe renewable electricity trade in which corridor, converter, storage, and reinforcement decisions are separated from scenario-dependent dispatch. The framework combines AC/DC power-flow representation, VSC-HVDC converter limits, HVDC loss modelling, domestic adequacy protection, frequency-security screening, voltage and short-circuit-ratio screening, and loss-adjusted market-value calculations. A stylised ELMED-type Tunisia-Italy VSC-HVDC case is used only as a numerical screening benchmark; it is not presented as an official project model or a utility-grade simulation. The screening results indicate that a 600 MW VSC-HVDC corridor can reduce renewable curtailment, improve export utilisation, and create congestion-rent value when supported by storage and adequate converter control. They also show that transfer capacity alone is an inadequate planning criterion: grid strength, converter current limits, frequency-response capability, local adequacy requirements, cable availability, carbon value, and market-price spreads materially affect the technical and economic value of the corridor. The paper, therefore, positions the proposed model as an auditable planning-and-screening framework and identifies the additional data and RMS/EMT validation required for a final utility-grade submission.
References
[1] European Commission, “ELMED Electricity Interconnection in Tunisia,” Global Gateway, accessed Jun. 27, 2026.
[2] Terna, “ELMED: MASE authorises the Italy-Tunisia interconnection,” Press Release, May 15, 2024.
[3] European Commission, “GREGY - High Voltage Electrical Interconnection in the Eastern Mediterranean,” Global Gateway, accessed Jun. 27, 2026.
[4] GREGY Interconnector, “Electrical Interconnection Project,” accessed Jun. 27, 2026.
[5] Red Electrica de Espana, “Electricity link Spain-Morocco,” Press Release, Sep. 4, 2020.
[6] Redeia, “Spain and Morocco agree on the development of a third interconnection between both countries,” Press Release, Feb. 14, 2019.
[7] O. Apata, A. V. Adebayo and P. K. Ainah, “Renewable Energy Systems and The Fourth Industrial Revolution,” 2021 IEEE PES/IAS PowerAfrica, Nairobi, Kenya, pp. 1–5, Aug 2021.
[8] Reuters, “Britain shuns $34 billion Morocco-UK subsea power project,” Jun. 26, 2025.
[9] P. Kundur et al., “Definition and classification of power system stability, IEEE/CIGRE joint task force on stability terms and definitions,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 1387-1401, Aug. 2004.
[10] N. Flourentzou, V. G. Agelidis, and G. D. Demetriades, “VSC-based HVDC power transmission systems: An overview,” IEEE Trans. Power Electron., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 592-602, Mar. 2009.
[11] M. P. Bahrman and B. K. Johnson, “The ABCs of HVDC transmission technologies,” IEEE Power Energy Mag., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 32-44, Mar.-Apr. 2007.
[12] A. J. Conejo, L. Baringo, S. J. Kazempour, and A. S. Siddiqui, Investment in Electricity Generation and Transmission: Decision Making under Uncertainty. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2016.
[13] A. J. Conejo, M. Carrion, and J. M. Morales, Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets. New York, NY, USA: Springer, 2010.
[14] ENTSO-E, “High Voltage Direct Current links in system operations,” System Operations Report, 2019.
[15] D. Van Hertem and M. Ghandhari, “Multi-terminal VSC HVDC for the European supergrid: Obstacles,” Renew. Sustain—Energy Rev., vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 3156-3163, 2010.
[16] D. Jovcic and K. Ahmed, High Voltage Direct Current Transmission: Converters, Systems and DC Grids. Hoboken, NJ, USA: Wiley, 2015.
[17] J. Beerten, S. Cole, and R. Belmans, “A sequential AC/DC power flow algorithm for networks containing multi-terminal VSC HVDC systems,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 821-829, May 2012.
[18] M. K. Bucher and C. M. Franck, “Fault current interruption in multiterminal HVDC networks,” IEEE Trans. Power Del., vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 87-95, Feb. 2016.
[19] J. Renedo, A. Garcia-Cerrada, and L. Rouco, “Active power control strategies for transient stability enhancement of AC/DC grids with VSC-HVDC multi-terminal systems,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 4595-4604, Nov. 2016.
[20] R. Eriksson, N. Modig, and K. Elkington, “Synthetic inertia versus fast frequency response: A definition,” IET Renew. Power Gener., vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 507-514, 2018.
[21] R. Romero, A. Monticelli, A. Garcia, and S. Haffner, “Test systems and mathematical models for transmission network expansion planning,” IEE Proc.-Gener. Transm. Distrib., vol. 149, no. 1, pp. 27-36, Jan. 2002.
[22] J. Choi, T. D. Mount, R. J. Thomas, and R. Billinton, “Probabilistic reliability criterion for planning transmission system expansions,” IEE Proc.-Gener. Transm. Distrib., vol. 153, no. 6, pp. 719-727, Nov. 2006.
[23] L. Baringo and A. J. Conejo, “Transmission and wind power investment,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 885-893, May 2012.
[24] A. Moreira, A. Street, and J. M. Arroyo, “An adjustable robust optimisation approach for contingency-constrained transmission expansion planning,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 2013-2022, Jul. 2015.
[25] J. Z. Zhou, H. Ding, S. Fan, Y. Zhang, and A. M. Gole, “Impact of short-circuit ratio and phase-locked-loop parameters on the small-signal behaviour of a VSC-HVDC converter,” IEEE Trans—Power Del., vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 2287-2296, Oct. 2014.
[26] H. Saad, S. Dennetiere, J. Mahseredjian, P. Delarue, X. Guillaud, J. Peralta, and S. Nguefeu, “Modular multilevel converter models for electromagnetic transients,” IEEE Trans. Power Del., vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 1481-1489, Jun. 2014.
[27] D. Van Hertem, O. Gomis-Bellmunt, and J. Liang, HVDC Grids: For Offshore and Supergrid of the Future. Hoboken, NJ, USA: Wiley, 2016.
[28] Adeyinka Victor Adebayo, Hussein Kehinde Adebayo, Samuel Oladeji, “Implementing Electrical Energy Storage for Improved Voltage Stability in Power Systems with Substantial Wind Generation., vol. 14, pp. 57-66, Mar. 2024.
[29] H. Bevrani, Robust Power System Frequency Control. New York, NY, USA: Springer, 2009.
[30] N. Hatziargyriou et al., “Definition and classification of power system stability - revisited and extended,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 3271-3281, Jul. 2021.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Author(s)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Articles published in the Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Studies (JAMS) are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), unless otherwise stated. Authors retain copyright of their work and grant JAMS the right of first publication.
