Climate Change, Institutional Quality, and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.68050/JAMS.2026.241Keywords:
Keywords: Climate Change; Institutional Quality; Inclusive Growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Panel ARDL; Environmental Resilience; Moderation EffectsAbstract
Climate shocks increasingly endanger Sub-Saharan Africa's economic trajectory, disproportionately impacting the region's agricultural and resource-reliant nations. To investigate these dynamics, this research analyzes a balanced panel data-set of 16 Sub-Saharan African economies spanning 2010 through 2025, exploring the interplay between environmental pressures, institutional frameworks, and inclusive growth. Utilizing a dynamic panel auto-regressive distributed lag methodology, the analysis evaluates whether governance quality captured via a composite metric derived from the World Governance Indicators buffers the adverse impacts of environmental stress on income disparity and poverty levels. The empirical evidence indicates that while ecological degradation undermines inclusive advancement, robust institutional structures significantly mitigate or even neutralize these negative consequences. Ultimately, the findings emphasize that high-quality governance serves as a vital safeguard against climate vulnerabilities, highlighting that successful climate finance initiatives must be coupled with structural governance reforms to safeguard marginalized populations and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
References
References
[1] World Bank. (2020). The Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan: Ramping Up Development-Centered Climate Action. World Bank Group.
[2] UNECA. (2025). Impact of Climate Change on Africa: Urgent Need to Shift the Economic Paradigm. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.
[3] Masron, T. A., & Subramaniam, Y. (2019). Governance, institutions, and climate change resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7, Article 153.
[4] Omri, A., Omri, A., Slimani, S., & Belaid, F. (2022). Governance, institutions, and climate change resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessing the threshold effects. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, Article 877546.
[5] Wandeda, D. O., Masai, W., & Nyandemo, S. M. (2021). Institutional quality and economic growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 9(4), 106-125.
[6] Afolabi, O. E. (2024). Institutional quality and inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Journal of Economic Review, 12(2).
[7] Kassouri, Y., & Altıntaş, H. (2020). Multilateral environmental agreements, governance, and institutional quality: New evidence from the ecological footprint in SSA. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 63(12), 2200-2221.
[8] IPCC. (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report (V. Masson-Delmotte et al., Eds.). World Meteorological Organization.
[9] Adodo, A., & Imoudu, M. (2023). People's perceptions of climate change and the effect of a community development project in Nigeria. International Journal of Social Quality, 13(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3167/IJSQ.2023.130103
[10] United Nations. (2024). Causes and Effects of Climate Change. United Nations Climate Action. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change
[11] Arwani, A., & Priyadi, U. (2024). The role and contribution of the New Institutional Economics in economic system performance. Jurnal Simki Economic, 7(1), 271-288. https://doi.org/10.29407/jse.v7i1.508
[12] Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
[13] World Bank. (2009). What Is Inclusive Growth? (Ianchovichina, E., & Lundstrom, S., authors).
[14] Klasen, S. (2010). Measuring and monitoring inclusive growth: Multiple definitions, open questions, and some constructive proposals (ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series No. 12). Asian Development Bank.
[15] Commission on Growth and Development. (2008). The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development. World Bank.
[16] OECD. (2011). Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264119536-en
[17] Anand, R., Mishra, S., & Peiris, S. J. (2013). Inclusive growth: Measurement and determinants (IMF Working Paper No. 13/135). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484323212.001
[18] OECD. (2019). Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/689afed1-en
[19] Jha, S. (2025). Climate-Smart Governance: Navigating Institutional Challenges in Africa's Green Transition. Oxford University Press.
[20] Steiner, A., et al. (2020). Climate change, institutional quality and the challenge of inclusive growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 9214.
[21] Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. Crown Business.
[22] Kamah, M., Riti, J. S., & Bin, P. (2021). Inclusive growth and environmental sustainability: The role of institutional quality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(26), 34885-34901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13125-z
[23] Jinapor, J. A., Abor, J. Y., & Graham, M. (2024). FDI, industrialization and environmental quality in SSA - the role of institutional quality towards environmental sustainability. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, Article 1484. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-04000-6
[24] Nginyu, G. G., Fonchamnyo, D. C., Epo, B. N., & Asongu, S. A. (2023). The effects of institutional quality and bio-capacity on inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Governance and Development Institute Working Paper, 23/044.
[25] Afolabi, O. E., & Oyeleke, O. J. (2024). Institutional quality and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel ARDL. African Finance and Economic Review, 7(1), 1-20.
[26] Abdul-Karim, S., & Alabani, K. (2026). Climate finance and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa: A panel data analysis. African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 9(2), 39-67.
[27] Oyelami, L. O., et al. (2023). Governance dynamics and climate mitigation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical insights. Environmental Science & Policy, 145, 12-28.
[28] Acheampong, A. O., & Dzator, J. (2020). The world is getting warmer: How does energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions impact the climate? Journal of Cleaner Production, 268, 122176.
[29] Bambi, M., et al. (2024). Robust institutions and climate resilience: Governance as a mediator for sustainable development in Africa. Development Policy Review, 42(3), e12745.
[30] Alkali, A. S., et al. (2020). Climate change, conflict, and institutional fragility in the Lake Chad Basin: A regional perspective. Journal of African Economies, 29(4), 312-335.
[31] Olabanji, A. K., & Chitakira, M. (2025). Governance and climate adaptation in Africa: A systematic review. Journal of Environmental Management, 370, Article 121456.
[32] Subramaniam, Y., Masron, T. A., & Azman, N. H. (2022). Governance and climate change: New evidence from African economies. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, Article 894321.
[33] Mesagan, E. P., & Eregha, P. B. (2019). Institutional quality and inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Journal of Economic Review, 7(2), 112-130.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Author(s)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Articles published in the Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Studies (JAMS) are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), unless otherwise stated. Authors retain copyright of their work and grant JAMS the right of first publication.
