Multinomial Regression Analysis of Cowpea (Vigna Unguiculata) Supply Response to Consumers’ Varietal Preferences in Delta State, Nigeria
Keywords:
multinomial regression, cowpea (vigna unguiculata), supply response, consumers, varietal preferences, sensory attributesAbstract
Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata), commonly known as Beans is a vital protein source that goes with many varieties for consuming households in Nigeria. Empirical evidence is lacking on its consumers’ preferences and varietal diversification as drivers of market supply patterns. This study analysed consumers’ preferences for cowpea varieties and their effects on market-driven varietal diversification patterns in Delta State, Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 120 cowpea consumers and 120 marketers across three Local Government Areas (viz: Ukwuani, Ughelli South, and Warri South). Primary data were collected with structured questionnaires and analysed using descriptive statistics, Multinomial Regression, Likert-scale, and t-test. Results showed that majority of the respondents, with Oloyin (Honey Bean) emerging as the dominant and most preferred variety (39.2%). This was followed by Ife Brown (22.7%) and White Beans (20.6%). The findings showed mean monthly household consumption was 2.28 kg, while marketers supplied an average of 15.76 kg per month and shows that there is no statistical difference and positive relationship between supply and demand for the most preferred variety. It shows that as demand for Oloyin (honey beans) is stimulating increasing, supply is also increasing hence the market demand is driving the supply. However, this expansion favoured preferred commercial varieties at the expense of local landraces, raising concerns about genetic extinction. The t-test accepted the null hypothesis of no significant difference between quantity supplied and demanded (t = 17.40, p < 0.001). The study concludes that consumer preferences are the primary driver of market-driven varietal diversification in Delta State, Nigeria. It recommends that breeders align new varieties with key consumer choice indicators (colour, grain size, cooking time, taste), while policies should promote varietal conservation, and market information systems to sustain a resilient cowpea value chain.
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