Africa-Libya-EU: From Pragmatic Engagement to StrategicPartnership
Keywords:
Power Transition,, Stable Governance, UnityAbstract
Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a stable political order, becoming a focal point of regional and international geopolitical competition. This paper examines Libya's political transition through four interconnected dimensions: the country's geopolitical significance, the challenges of constitutional and institutional development, the limitations of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) roadmap, and the prospects for military unification. It argues that Libya's strategic location between Europe, North Africa, and the Sahel, combined with its substantial energy resources, has encouraged external intervention and intensified domestic political fragmentation.
The paper critically evaluates Libya's constitutional trajectory, highlighting the absence of a broadly accepted constitutional framework capable of reconciling competing political and regional interests. It further assesses the UNSMIL-led political roadmap, arguing that its emphasis on electoral milestones and elite bargaining has failed to address the underlying structural causes of instability, including fragmented security institutions, competing centers of authority, and the influence of foreign actors. Particular attention is given to efforts aimed at unifying Libya's rival military structures, which remain hindered by political mistrust, divergent regional interests, and the persistence of armed groups operating outside state control.
Finally, the study analyzes the role of the European Union, emphasizing how concerns related to migration management, energy security, and regional stability shape EU engagement in Libya. While the EU has supported political dialogue and institutional development, its policies often prioritize security and migration objectives over long-term state-building. The paper concludes that sustainable political transition in Libya requires a more inclusive constitutional settlement, meaningful security sector reform, and greater alignment between international initiatives and Libya's domestic political realities.
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